Clermont vs Rodez — Ligue 2 forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Clermont
30%
Draw
27%
Rodez
43%
Expected goals
1.11–1.29
Clermont · Rodez
Rodez win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.9%), 0–1 (12.4%), 1–2 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Rodez win is 0–1 (12.4%).
Clermont score at least twice in 30%; Rodez in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Rodez goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.9 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Clermont goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market reference | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 27% | 43% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Clermont
| 8 Aug | H | vs Reims | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs St Etienne | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sochaux | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Dunkerque | 1–1 | D |
Rodez
| 8 Aug | H | vs Laval | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Annecy | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nantes | 5–2 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Pau FC | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Metz | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Clermont (Home · 6 matches) | Rodez (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 16.7% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Clermont's home record; away stats use Rodez's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.