Clermont vs Guingamp — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Clermont
31%
Draw
30%
Guingamp
39%
Expected goals
1.12–1.25
Clermont · Guingamp
Guingamp win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 0–1 (11.2%), 0–0 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Clermont score at least twice in 31%; Guingamp in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Guingamp goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 14.0 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Clermont goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Market reference | 31% | 30% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 31% | 30% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Clermont | 3.07 |
| Draw | 3.23 |
| Guingamp | 2.45 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Clermont
| 8 Aug | H | vs Reims | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs St Etienne | 1–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Sochaux | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Dunkerque | 1–1 | D |
Guingamp
| 8 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Boulogne | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Sochaux | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Reims | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Clermont (Home · 5 matches) | Guingamp (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.40 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Clermont's home record; away stats use Guingamp's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.