Boulogne vs Reims — Ligue 2 forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Boulogne
29%
Draw
30%
Reims
41%
Expected goals
1.00–1.30
Boulogne · Reims
Reims win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.9%), 0–1 (11.1%), 0–0 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Boulogne score at least twice in 27%; Reims in 37%.
Scoreline distribution
Reims goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.9 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Boulogne goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 23% | 29% | 47% |
| Market reference | 29% | 30% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 29% | 30% | 41% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Boulogne | 3.23 |
| Draw | 3.17 |
| Reims | 2.33 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 0.91–1.41 → 1.00–1.30
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Boulogne
| 8 Aug | H | vs Nancy | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Guingamp | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Red Star | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Montpellier | 0–0 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Dijon | 1–1 | D |
Reims
| 8 Aug | A | vs Clermont | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Dunkerque | 3–3 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Annecy | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Red Star | 4–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Guingamp | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Boulogne (Home · 4 matches) | Reims (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Boulogne's home record; away stats use Reims's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.