Annecy vs Nancy — Ligue 2 forecast, Friday, 16 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Annecy
34%
Draw
28%
Nancy
38%
Expected goals
1.18–1.13
Annecy · Nancy
Nancy win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 0–1 (12.8%), 0–0 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Annecy score at least twice in 32%; Nancy in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Nancy goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Annecy goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Market reference | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Annecy | 2.77 |
| Draw | 3.36 |
| Nancy | 2.52 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Oct · 05:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Annecy
| 8 Aug | A | vs Pau FC | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Rodez | 2–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Reims | 1–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Metz | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Grenoble | 2–1 | W |
Nancy
| 8 Aug | A | vs Boulogne | 0–0 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Montpellier | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Pau FC | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Dunkerque | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Nantes | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Annecy (Home · 3 matches) | Nancy (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Annecy's home record; away stats use Nancy's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.