Toulouse vs Lille — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Thursday, 3 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.7 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Toulouse
23%
Draw
27%
Lille
49%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lille win 49.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lille win. Expected goals 1.06–1.58 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.0%), 0–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (10.1%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Toulouse
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lyon | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Brest | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lorient | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Le Havre | 3–2 | W |
Lille
| 23 Aug | A | vs Angers | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Toulouse (Home · 4 matches) | Lille (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Toulouse's home record; away stats use Lille's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.