Toulouse vs Le Havre — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Toulouse
57%
pick · result
Draw
23%
Le Havre
20%
Final score
3–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Toulouse win 57.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Toulouse win. Expected goals 1.66–0.92 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (13.2%), 1–1 (11.1%), 2–0 (11.0%). It finished 3–2.
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Toulouse
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lyon | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Brest | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lorient | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Le Havre | 3–2 | W |
Le Havre
| 23 Aug | H | vs Monaco | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lyon | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Brest | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Toulouse (Home · 4 matches) | Le Havre (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Toulouse's home record; away stats use Le Havre's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.