Strasbourg vs Paris SG — Ligue 1 forecast, Saturday, 17 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Strasbourg
14%
Draw
17%
Paris SG
69%
Expected goals
0.94–2.01
Strasbourg · Paris SG
Paris SG win 69% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (13.9%), 0–1 (12.9%), 0–2 (11.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Strasbourg score at least twice in 24%; Paris SG in 63%.
Scoreline distribution
Paris SG goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 12.9 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 3.2 | 7.9 | 13.9 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Strasbourg goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 26% | 47% |
| Market reference | 14% | 17% | 69% |
| Metis Forecast | 14% | 17% | 69% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Strasbourg
| 21 Aug | A | vs Marseille | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Lens | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Troyes | 6–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 1–2 | L |
Paris SG
| 23 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Lille | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Strasbourg (Home · 2 matches) | Paris SG (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Strasbourg's home record; away stats use Paris SG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.