Strasbourg vs Monaco — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 6.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Strasbourg
29%
Draw
25%
result
Monaco
47%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Monaco win. Expected goals 1.25–1.55 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (10.6%), 0–1 (9.8%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Strasbourg
| 21 Aug | A | vs Marseille | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Lens | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Troyes | 6–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 1–2 | L |
Monaco
| 4 Sept | A | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Marseille | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Paris SG | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Strasbourg | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Strasbourg (Home · 4 matches) | Monaco (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Strasbourg's home record; away stats use Monaco's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.