🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Saturday, 29 August 2026·15:15
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 4.02 | 4.02 |
| Draw | 3.84 | 3.84 |
| Lens | 1.93 | 1.93 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketStrasbourg
24%
Draw
25%
Lens
51%
Strasbourg 1.16 xGexpected goals1.56 xG Lens
Lens win 51% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–2 (12.3%).
Strasbourg score at least twice in 31%; Lens in 48%.
1–2 12.3%1–1 12.0%0–1 11.8%0–2 8.4%0–0 7.0%2–1 5.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Strasbourg goals · columns = Lens goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score56%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Over 4.5 goals14%
Strasbourg clean sheet19%
Lens clean sheet32%
Strasbourg score 2+31%
Lens score 2+48%
Strasbourg score 3+12%
Model vs market
| Source | Strasbourg | Draw | Lens |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 28% | 32% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Metis Forecast | 24% | 25% | 51% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Strasbourg
| 17 Aug | A | vs Metz | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Nantes | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Monaco | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 3–2 | W |
Lens
| 16 Aug | H | vs Lyon | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Brest | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Paris SG | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lille | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
| 27 Feb 26 | StrasbourgvsLens | 1 – 1 |
| 22 Nov 25 | LensvsStrasbourg | 1 – 0 |
Strasbourg: 0W 1D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Strasbourg (Home) | Lens (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 58.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 70.6% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.88 | 3.12 |
Home stats use Strasbourg's home record; away stats use Lens's away record this season.