Rennes vs Strasbourg — Ligue 1 forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rennes
55%
Draw
21%
Strasbourg
24%
Expected goals
1.96–1.21
Rennes · Strasbourg
Rennes win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.0%), 1–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Rennes score at least twice in 58%; Strasbourg in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Strasbourg goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rennes goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 24% | 23% |
| Market reference | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 21% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Rennes | 1.77 |
| Draw | 4.45 |
| Strasbourg | 4.06 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Rennes
| 23 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Le Mans | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Angers | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 0–4 | L |
Strasbourg
| 21 Aug | A | vs Marseille | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Lens | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Troyes | 6–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rennes (Home · 4 matches) | Strasbourg (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 4.50 |
Home stats use Rennes's home record; away stats use Strasbourg's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.