Rennes vs Marseille — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.2 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Rennes
47%
pick · result
Draw
24%
Marseille
29%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Rennes win 47.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Rennes win. Expected goals 1.65–1.27 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (8.7%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Rennes
| 23 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Le Mans | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Angers | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 0–4 | L |
Marseille
| 21 Aug | H | vs Strasbourg | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Monaco | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Paris FC | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Rennes | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rennes (Home · 5 matches) | Marseille (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.60 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Rennes's home record; away stats use Marseille's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.