Paris SG vs Lyon — Ligue 1 forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Paris SG
71%
Draw
16%
Lyon
13%
Expected goals
2.35–0.86
Paris SG · Lyon
Paris SG win 71% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11.5%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Paris SG score at least twice in 68%; Lyon in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Lyon goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Paris SG goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Market reference | 71% | 16% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 71% | 16% | 13% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Paris SG
| 23 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Lille | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 2–1 | W |
Lyon
| 22 Aug | A | vs Toulouse | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Le Havre | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Rennes | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paris SG (Home · 2 matches) | Lyon (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Paris SG's home record; away stats use Lyon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.