Paris Saint-Germain vs Monaco — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Paris Saint-Germain
72%
top pick
Draw
16%
Monaco
12%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Monaco win 11.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Paris Saint-Germain win. Expected goals 2.22–0.88 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (12.1%), 2–0 (12.0%), 1–0 (11.1%). It finished 1–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Paris Saint-Germain
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
Monaco
| 4 Sept | A | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Marseille | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Paris SG | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Strasbourg | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paris Saint-Germain (Home · no matches) | Monaco (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | — | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.00 |
Home stats use Paris Saint-Germain's home record; away stats use Monaco's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.