Paris FC vs Nice — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Paris FC
47%
pick · result
Draw
28%
Nice
25%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Paris FC win 46.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Paris FC win. Expected goals 1.59–1.15 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.5%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (9.4%). It finished 3–0.
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Paris FC
| 22 Aug | A | vs Troyes | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Nice | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Lyon | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
Nice
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lorient | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Paris FC | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paris FC (Home · 3 matches) | Nice (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Paris FC's home record; away stats use Nice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.