🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Sunday, 30 August 2026·13:00
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| Draw | 3.42 | 3.42 |
| Nice | 3.78 | 3.78 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketParis FC
46%
Draw
28%
Nice
25%
Paris FC 1.63 xGexpected goals1.17 xG Nice
Paris FC win 46% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.4%).
Paris FC score at least twice in 49%; Nice in 33%.
1–1 13.4%2–1 9.4%1–0 8.7%2–0 7.9%0–0 7.3%1–2 6.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Paris FC goals · columns = Nice goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score57%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals15%
Paris FC clean sheet31%
Nice clean sheet19%
Paris FC score 2+49%
Nice score 2+33%
Paris FC score 3+22%
Model vs market
| Source | Paris FC | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 46% | 28% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 28% | 25% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Paris FC
| 17 Aug | A | vs Angers | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Marseille | 2–5 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Metz | 3–2 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Brest | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–3 | L |
Nice
| 16 Aug | H | vs Toulouse | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Le Havre | 1–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Nantes | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
| 1 Mar 26 | Paris FCvsNice | 1 – 0 |
| 28 Sept 25 | NicevsParis FC | 1 – 1 |
Paris FC: 1W 1D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Paris FC (Home) | Nice (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 52.9% | 64.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 58.8% |
| Clean sheet | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Avg goals | 3.24 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Paris FC's home record; away stats use Nice's away record this season.