Paris FC vs Lyon — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Paris FC
38%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
Lyon
37%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Paris FC win. Expected goals 1.39–1.41 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (8.1%). It finished 0–0.
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Paris FC
| 22 Aug | A | vs Troyes | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Nice | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Lyon | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
Lyon
| 22 Aug | A | vs Toulouse | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Le Havre | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Rennes | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Paris FC (Home · 5 matches) | Lyon (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Paris FC's home record; away stats use Lyon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.