Nice vs Rennes — Ligue 1 forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Nice
35%
Draw
25%
Rennes
40%
Expected goals
1.33–1.49
Nice · Rennes
Rennes win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (8.6%), 2–1 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Nice score at least twice in 39%; Rennes in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Rennes goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Nice goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Market reference | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 25% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Nice | 2.79 |
| Draw | 3.84 |
| Rennes | 2.41 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 28 Oct · 04:29 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Nice
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lorient | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Paris FC | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
Rennes
| 23 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Le Mans | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Angers | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nice (Home · 4 matches) | Rennes (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 4.67 |
Home stats use Nice's home record; away stats use Rennes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.