Nice vs Paris SG — Ligue 1 forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Nice
15%
Draw
18%
Paris SG
67%
Expected goals
0.97–2.43
Nice · Paris SG
Paris SG win 67% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (9.6%), 1–2 (8.4%), 1–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Nice score at least twice in 26%; Paris SG in 68%.
Scoreline distribution
Paris SG goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| 1 | 3.4 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Nice goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 10% | 17% | 73% |
| Market reference | 15% | 18% | 67% |
| Metis Forecast | 15% | 18% | 67% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Nice
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lorient | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Paris FC | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
Paris SG
| 23 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Lille | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nice (Home · 5 matches) | Paris SG (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Nice's home record; away stats use Paris SG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.