Nice vs Lille — Ligue 1 forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Nice
27%
Draw
29%
Lille
44%
Expected goals
1.02–1.38
Nice · Lille
Lille win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (11.5%), 0–0 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Lille win is 0–1 (11.5%).
Nice score at least twice in 27%; Lille in 40%.
Scoreline distribution
Lille goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Nice goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 3.76 | 3.70 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.22 | 3.80 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.12 | 3.60 1xBet |
| Lille | 2.06 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.11 | 2.07 | 2.05 | 2.00 | 2.05 | 2.01 | 2.11 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Nice
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lorient | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Paris FC | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
Lille
| 23 Aug | A | vs Angers | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Nice (Home · 3 matches) | Lille (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 1.67 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Nice's home record; away stats use Lille's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.