Monaco vs Marseille — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Monaco
42%
pick · result
Draw
26%
Marseille
31%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Monaco win 42.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Monaco win. Expected goals 1.54–1.28 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (8.2%). It finished 2–0.
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Monaco
| 4 Sept | A | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Marseille | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Paris SG | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Strasbourg | 1–1 | D |
Marseille
| 21 Aug | H | vs Strasbourg | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Monaco | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Paris FC | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Rennes | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Monaco (Home · 2 matches) | Marseille (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 1.50 |
Home stats use Monaco's home record; away stats use Marseille's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.