🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Sunday, 30 August 2026·18:45
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.49 | 2.49 |
| Draw | 3.68 | 3.68 |
| Marseille | 2.78 | 2.78 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketMonaco
39%
Draw
26%
Marseille
35%
Monaco 1.51 xGexpected goals1.36 xG Marseille
Monaco win 39% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.3%).
Monaco score at least twice in 44%; Marseille in 40%.
1–1 12.3%1–2 8.6%2–1 8.2%0–1 7.4%1–0 7.1%0–0 6.5%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Monaco goals · columns = Marseille goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score59%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals32%
Over 4.5 goals16%
Monaco clean sheet25%
Marseille clean sheet23%
Monaco score 2+44%
Marseille score 2+40%
Monaco score 3+20%
Model vs market
| Source | Monaco | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 26% | 30% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 26% | 35% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Monaco
| 16 Aug | H | vs Le Havre | 3–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Strasbourg | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Auxerre | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Metz | 5–2 | W |
Marseille
| 15 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Paris FC | 5–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Lyon | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 4–0 | W |
| 22 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 5 Apr 26 | MonacovsMarseille | 2 – 1 |
| 14 Dec 25 | MarseillevsMonaco | 1 – 0 |
Monaco: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Monaco (Home) | Marseille (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 58.8% | 35.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 64.7% | 52.9% |
| Clean sheet | 29.4% | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | 3.29 | 2.76 |
Home stats use Monaco's home record; away stats use Marseille's away record this season.