Monaco vs Lille — Ligue 1 forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Monaco
47%
Draw
29%
Lille
25%
Expected goals
1.55–1.09
Monaco · Lille
Monaco win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Monaco win is 1–0 (10.1%).
Monaco score at least twice in 46%; Lille in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Lille goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.8 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Monaco goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market reference | 47% | 29% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 29% | 25% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Monaco | 2.09 |
| Draw | 3.34 |
| Lille | 3.90 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Monaco
| 4 Sept | A | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Le Havre | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Marseille | 2–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Paris SG | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Strasbourg | 1–1 | D |
Lille
| 23 Aug | A | vs Angers | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Monaco (Home · 3 matches) | Lille (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Monaco's home record; away stats use Lille's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.