Marseille vs Paris SG — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Marseille
15%
Draw
18%
Paris SG
67%
pick · result
Final score
1–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Paris SG win 67.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Paris SG win. Expected goals 0.97–2.19 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (11.0%), 0–2 (10.7%), 0–1 (9.5%). It finished 1–2 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Marseille
| 21 Aug | H | vs Strasbourg | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Monaco | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Paris FC | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Rennes | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 1–2 | L |
Paris SG
| 23 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Lille | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Marseille (Home · 5 matches) | Paris SG (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 4.20 | 3.67 |
Home stats use Marseille's home record; away stats use Paris SG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.