Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain — Ligue 1 forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — market price too old to anchorModel updated
Marseille
61%
Draw
23%
Paris Saint-Germain
16%
Expected goals
1.96–0.99
Marseille · Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.0%), 2–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Marseille win is 2–0 (10.1%).
Marseille score at least twice in 58%; Paris Saint-Germain in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Paris Saint-Germain goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Marseille goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market reference | 14% | 18% | 68% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 23% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot . That snapshot was too old to anchor this forecast, so it is shown for reference only.
This fixture is not anchored, so the Metis Forecast row is the raw model.
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 7.46 | 7.50 | 6.50 | 7.80 | 7.50 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.70 | 5.70 | 7.80 1xBet |
| Draw | 5.52 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.58 | 5.40 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 4.84 | 5.58 1xBet |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.41 | 1.42 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.42 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Marseille
| 21 Aug | H | vs Strasbourg | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Monaco | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Paris FC | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Rennes | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 1–2 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Marseille (Home · 3 matches) | Paris Saint-Germain (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | — |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | — |
Home stats use Marseille's home record; away stats use Paris Saint-Germain's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.