Marseille vs Paris FC — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Marseille
52%
top pick
Draw
25%
Paris FC
23%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Paris FC win 23.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Marseille win. Expected goals 1.78–1.03 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.9%), 2–0 (9.2%), 1–0 (8.7%). It finished 2–3.
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Marseille
| 21 Aug | H | vs Strasbourg | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Monaco | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Paris FC | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Rennes | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 1–2 | L |
Paris FC
| 22 Aug | A | vs Troyes | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Nice | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Lyon | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Marseille (Home · 5 matches) | Paris FC (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.20 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Marseille's home record; away stats use Paris FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.