Marseille vs Le Havre — Ligue 1 forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Marseille
62%
Draw
19%
Le Havre
19%
Expected goals
2.04–1.00
Marseille · Le Havre
Marseille win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.3%), 2–1 (10.1%), 1–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Marseille score at least twice in 61%; Le Havre in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Le Havre goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Marseille goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Market reference | 62% | 19% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 19% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.58 |
| Draw | 4.90 |
| Le Havre | 4.99 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Marseille
| 21 Aug | H | vs Strasbourg | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Monaco | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Paris FC | 2–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Rennes | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 1–2 | L |
Le Havre
| 23 Aug | H | vs Monaco | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lyon | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Brest | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Marseille (Home · 3 matches) | Le Havre (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Marseille's home record; away stats use Le Havre's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.