Lyon vs Rennes — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lyon
46%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Rennes
29%
Final score
4–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lyon win 45.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lyon win. Expected goals 1.62–1.27 against 4–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–0 (8.5%). It finished 4–0.
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Lyon
| 22 Aug | A | vs Toulouse | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Le Havre | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Rennes | 4–0 | W |
Rennes
| 23 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Le Mans | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Angers | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lyon (Home · 5 matches) | Rennes (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 5.25 |
Home stats use Lyon's home record; away stats use Rennes's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.