🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:45
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1.49 | 1.49 |
| Draw | 4.65 | 4.65 |
| Le Havre | 6.86 | 6.86 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketLyon
66%
Draw
21%
Le Havre
14%
Lyon 1.97 xGexpected goals0.84 xG Le Havre
Lyon win 66% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–0 (12.3%).
Lyon score at least twice in 60%; Le Havre in 20%.
1–0 12.3%2–0 12.2%2–1 11.1%1–1 9.8%3–0 7.4%3–1 6.8%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Lyon goals · columns = Le Havre goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score50%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals31%
Over 4.5 goals15%
Lyon clean sheet43%
Le Havre clean sheet13%
Lyon score 2+60%
Le Havre score 2+20%
Lyon score 3+31%
Model vs market
| Source | Lyon | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 60% | 24% | 16% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 66% | 21% | 14% |
| Metis Forecast | 66% | 21% | 14% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Lyon
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lens | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Metz | 3–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Marseille | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Rennes | 1–3 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Angers | 1–0 | W |
Le Havre
| 16 Aug | A | vs Monaco | 1–3 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Lens | 1–2 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Nice | 3–1 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Strasbourg | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 26 | Le HavrevsLyon | 0 – 0 |
| 14 Dec 25 | LyonvsLe Havre | 1 – 0 |
Lyon: 1W 1D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Lyon (Home) | Le Havre (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.1% | 41.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 58.8% | 23.5% |
| Clean sheet | 47.1% | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.82 | 2.24 |
Home stats use Lyon's home record; away stats use Le Havre's away record this season.