Lyon vs Auxerre — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 7.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Lyon
68%
pick · result
Draw
20%
Auxerre
13%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Lyon win 67.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Lyon win. Expected goals 2.06–0.87 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (11.8%), 2–1 (11.6%), 1–0 (11.6%). It finished 3–1.
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Lyon
| 22 Aug | A | vs Toulouse | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Le Havre | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Paris FC | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Rennes | 4–0 | W |
Auxerre
| 22 Aug | A | vs Lens | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Angers | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Brest | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lyon (Home · 5 matches) | Auxerre (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 5.20 |
Home stats use Lyon's home record; away stats use Auxerre's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.