Lorient vs Brest — Ligue 1 forecast, Monday, 2 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lorient
40%
Draw
28%
Brest
32%
Expected goals
1.34–1.14
Lorient · Brest
Lorient win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 1–0 (9.9%), 0–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lorient score at least twice in 39%; Brest in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Brest goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.5 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lorient goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market reference | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lorient | 2.40 |
| Draw | 3.33 |
| Brest | 3.00 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 28 Oct · 04:29 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lorient
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nice | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Troyes | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Lens | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Le Mans | 1–2 | L |
Brest
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lorient (Home · 4 matches) | Brest (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Lorient's home record; away stats use Brest's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.