Lille vs Lens — Ligue 1 forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lille
42%
Draw
27%
Lens
32%
Expected goals
1.55–1.26
Lille · Lens
Lille win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.8%), 2–1 (8.2%), 1–2 (8.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lille score at least twice in 45%; Lens in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Lens goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.7 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lille goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Market reference | 42% | 27% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 27% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lille | 2.31 |
| Draw | 3.51 |
| Lens | 3.01 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lille
| 23 Aug | A | vs Angers | 2–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Paris SG | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Troyes | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Nice | 1–2 | L |
Lens
| 22 Aug | H | vs Auxerre | 5–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Strasbourg | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lille (Home · 4 matches) | Lens (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Lille's home record; away stats use Lens's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.