Lens vs Paris FC — Ligue 1 forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lens
39%
Draw
26%
Paris FC
35%
Expected goals
1.42–1.26
Lens · Paris FC
Lens win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.5%), 1–2 (8.6%), 0–1 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lens score at least twice in 41%; Paris FC in 36%.
Scoreline distribution
Paris FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lens goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 26% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Lens | 2.47 |
| Draw | 3.67 |
| Paris FC | 2.80 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Lens
| 22 Aug | H | vs Auxerre | 5–2 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Strasbourg | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sept | A | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
Paris FC
| 22 Aug | A | vs Troyes | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Nice | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Lyon | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Strasbourg | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Lens (Home · 3 matches) | Paris FC (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Lens's home record; away stats use Paris FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.