Le Havre vs Paris SG — Ligue 1 forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Le Havre
8%
Draw
13%
Paris SG
79%
Expected goals
0.74–2.47
Le Havre · Paris SG
Paris SG win 79% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (13.2%), 0–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Le Havre score at least twice in 17%; Paris SG in 73%.
Scoreline distribution
Paris SG goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 |
| 1 | 2.3 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Le Havre goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 9% | 19% | 72% |
| Market reference | 8% | 13% | 79% |
| Metis Forecast | 8% | 13% | 79% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Le Havre
| 23 Aug | H | vs Monaco | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lyon | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Brest | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 2–3 | L |
Paris SG
| 23 Aug | A | vs Rennes | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Lille | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Brest | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Marseille | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Le Havre (Home · 4 matches) | Paris SG (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Le Havre's home record; away stats use Paris SG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.