Le Havre vs Brest — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Le Havre
36%
top pick
Draw
29%
Brest
35%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Brest win 34.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Le Havre win. Expected goals 1.34–1.33 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.0%), 0–0 (8.2%), 2–1 (8.1%). It finished 1–2.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Le Havre
| 23 Aug | H | vs Monaco | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Lyon | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Brest | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Angers | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Toulouse | 2–3 | L |
Brest
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Le Havre (Home · 5 matches) | Brest (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Le Havre's home record; away stats use Brest's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.