Brest vs Toulouse — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Brest
36%
top pick
Draw
28%
result
Toulouse
36%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Brest win. Expected goals 1.34–1.28 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 0–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (8.8%). It finished 2–2.
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Brest
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 0–1 | L |
Toulouse
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lyon | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Brest | 2–2 | D |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Lille | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Lorient | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Le Havre | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Brest (Home · 2 matches) | Toulouse (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Brest's home record; away stats use Toulouse's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.