🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:45

18:45

12th vs 9th

LDWWD

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Brest	2.72	2.72
Draw	3.41	3.41
Toulouse	2.72	2.72

Metis Forecast

model + market

Brest

36%

Draw

28%

Toulouse

36%

Brest 1.35 xGexpected goals1.28 xG Toulouse

Brest win 36% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 55% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.6%).

Brest score at least twice in 39%; Toulouse in 37%.

1–1 13.6%0–1 9.0%1–2 8.9%0–0 8.3%1–0 7.8%2–1 7.4%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	8.3	9.0	6.0	2.3	0.7	0.2
1	7.8	13.6	8.9	3.4	1.0	0.3
2	6.4	7.4	5.4	2.6	0.7	0.2
3	3.2	3.7	2.1	1.0	0.4	0.1
4	1.2	1.4	0.8	0.3	0.1	0.0
5+	0.5	0.5	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0

rows = Brest goals · columns = Toulouse goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score55%

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Over 4.5 goals13%

Brest clean sheet27%

Toulouse clean sheet26%

Brest score 2+39%

Toulouse score 2+37%

Brest score 3+16%

Model vs market

Source	Brest	Draw	Toulouse
Raw Metis model	44%	28%	29%
Market (de-vigged)	36%	28%	36%
Metis Forecast	36%	28%	36%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Brest

17 Aug	H	vs Lille	3–3	D
24 Aug	A	vs Toulouse	0–2	L
29 Aug	A	vs Lens	1–3	L
14 Sept	H	vs Paris FC	1–2	L
20 Sept	H	vs Nice	4–1	W

Toulouse

16 Aug	A	vs Nice	1–0	W
24 Aug	H	vs Brest	2–0	W
30 Aug	H	vs Paris SG	3–6	L
14 Sept	A	vs Lille	1–2	L
21 Sept	A	vs Auxerre	0–1	L

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Brest (Home)	Toulouse (Away)
BTTS rate	47.1%	52.9%
Over 2.5 rate	47.1%	52.9%
Clean sheet	41.2%	23.5%
Avg goals	3.00	2.59

Home stats use Brest's home record; away stats use Toulouse's away record this season.

Brest →Toulouse →🇫🇷 Ligue 1 standings & fixtures