Brest vs Nice — Ligue 1 forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Brest
42%
Draw
28%
Nice
29%
Expected goals
1.49–1.21
Brest · Nice
Brest win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Brest win is 2–1 (9.1%).
Brest score at least twice in 44%; Nice in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Nice goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Brest goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Market reference | 42% | 28% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Brest | 2.29 |
| Draw | 3.38 |
| Nice | 3.32 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Brest
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 0–1 | L |
Nice
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lorient | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Paris FC | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Brest (Home · 3 matches) | Nice (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Brest's home record; away stats use Nice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.