Auxerre vs Nice — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Auxerre
34%
result
Draw
28%
Nice
38%
top pick
Final score
1–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Auxerre win 34.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Nice win. Expected goals 1.26–1.34 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 0–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (8.5%). It finished 1–0.
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Auxerre
| 22 Aug | A | vs Lens | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Angers | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Brest | 2–1 | W |
Nice
| 22 Aug | H | vs Lorient | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Paris FC | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Le Mans | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Auxerre | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lille | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Auxerre (Home · 4 matches) | Nice (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Auxerre's home record; away stats use Nice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.