Auxerre vs Brest — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Auxerre
31%
result
Draw
27%
Brest
42%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Auxerre win 30.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Brest win. Expected goals 1.18–1.39 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 0–1 (10.2%), 1–2 (9.3%). It finished 2–1.
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Auxerre
| 22 Aug | A | vs Lens | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Angers | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Brest | 2–1 | W |
Brest
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris Saint-Germain | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Auxerre (Home · 4 matches) | Brest (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Auxerre's home record; away stats use Brest's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.