Auxerre vs Brest — Ligue 1 forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Auxerre
33%
Draw
29%
Brest
38%
Expected goals
1.21–1.32
Auxerre · Brest
Brest win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (9.5%), 0–0 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Auxerre score at least twice in 34%; Brest in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Brest goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 13.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Auxerre goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 2.91 | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.93 | 2.87 | 2.88 | 2.80 | 2.85 | 2.66 | 2.93 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.72 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.62 | 3.18 | 3.72 1xBet |
| Brest | 2.46 | 2.40 | 2.38 | 2.47 | 2.45 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.27 | 2.47 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Auxerre
| 22 Aug | A | vs Lens | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Angers | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Brest | 2–1 | W |
Brest
| 22 Aug | A | vs Le Mans | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Paris SG | 0–1 | L |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Auxerre | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Auxerre (Home · 3 matches) | Brest (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Auxerre's home record; away stats use Brest's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.