Auxerre vs Angers — Ligue 1 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.0 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Auxerre
47%
top pick
Draw
28%
Angers
25%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Angers win 25.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Auxerre win. Expected goals 1.49–1.05 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (11.2%), 2–1 (9.6%). It finished 1–3.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Auxerre
| 22 Aug | A | vs Lens | 2–5 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Angers | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 1–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Nice | 1–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Brest | 2–1 | W |
Angers
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Rennes | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Troyes | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Auxerre (Home · 3 matches) | Angers (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Auxerre's home record; away stats use Angers's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.