🇫🇷 Ligue 1·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:45
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 2.10 | 2.10 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Angers | 3.83 | 3.83 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketAuxerre
47%
Draw
28%
Angers
25%
Auxerre 1.44 xGexpected goals1.00 xG Angers
Auxerre win 47% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.3%).
Auxerre score at least twice in 42%; Angers in 26%.
1–1 13.3%1–0 11.7%0–0 9.6%2–1 9.2%2–0 9.1%0–1 7.7%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Auxerre goals · columns = Angers goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score49%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Auxerre clean sheet37%
Angers clean sheet24%
Auxerre score 2+42%
Angers score 2+26%
Auxerre score 3+18%
Model vs market
| Source | Auxerre | Draw | Angers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 29% | 26% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 28% | 25% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Auxerre
| 17 Aug | H | vs Lorient | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Nice | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Nantes | 0–1 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Monaco | 1–2 | L |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Toulouse | 1–0 | W |
Angers
| 17 Aug | H | vs Paris FC | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Paris SG | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Rennes | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Metz | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Lyon | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 3 May 26 | AuxerrevsAngers | 3 – 1 |
| 9 Nov 25 | AngersvsAuxerre | 2 – 0 |
Auxerre: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Auxerre (Home) | Angers (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 35.3% | 41.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 47.1% | 35.3% |
| Clean sheet | 41.2% | 23.5% |
| Avg goals | 2.06 | 2.29 |
Home stats use Auxerre's home record; away stats use Angers's away record this season.