Angers vs Lorient — Ligue 1 forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Angers
32%
Draw
29%
Lorient
39%
Expected goals
1.14–1.32
Angers · Lorient
Lorient win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 0–1 (10.1%), 0–0 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Angers score at least twice in 32%; Lorient in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Lorient goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.7 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Angers goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Market reference | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 29% | 39% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Angers | 3.05 |
| Draw | 3.34 |
| Lorient | 2.47 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Angers
| 23 Aug | H | vs Lille | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Auxerre | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Rennes | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Le Havre | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Troyes | 2–0 | W |
Lorient
| 22 Aug | A | vs Nice | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Troyes | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Lens | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Le Mans | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Angers (Home · 4 matches) | Lorient (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 1.33 |
Home stats use Angers's home record; away stats use Lorient's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.