Valladolid vs Cordoba — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 27 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Valladolid
43%
Draw
27%
Cordoba
30%
Expected goals
1.36–1.13
Valladolid · Cordoba
Valladolid win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.0%), 1–0 (11.2%), 2–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Valladolid win is 1–0 (11.2%).
Valladolid score at least twice in 40%; Cordoba in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Cordoba goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Valladolid goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market reference | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 27% | 30% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid | 2.24 | 2.20 | 2.15 | 2.25 | 2.22 | 2.15 | 2.15 | 2.18 | 2.09 | 2.25 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.46 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.53 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.42 | 3.11 | 3.53 1xBet |
| Cordoba | 3.18 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.18 | 3.25 | 2.88 | 3.00 | 3.08 | 2.83 | 3.25 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Cordoba
| 16 Aug | A | vs Burgos | 2–3 | L |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Girona | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Granada | 1–3 | L |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Sabadell | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Almeria | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valladolid (Home · 2 matches) | Cordoba (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Valladolid's home record; away stats use Cordoba's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.