Valladolid vs Castellon — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 14 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Valladolid
34%
Draw
25%
Castellon
41%
Expected goals
1.19–1.40
Valladolid · Castellon
Castellon win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 0–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Valladolid score at least twice in 34%; Castellon in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Castellon goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Valladolid goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 28% | 44% |
| Market reference | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 25% | 41% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Valladolid | 2.84 |
| Draw | 3.72 |
| Castellon | 2.34 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Nov · 04:35 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Castellon
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valladolid (Home · 6 matches) | Castellon (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 42.9% |
| Avg goals | 4.17 | 2.14 |
Home stats use Valladolid's home record; away stats use Castellon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.