Valladolid vs Andorra — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Valladolid
42%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Andorra
29%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Valladolid win 42.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Valladolid win. Expected goals 1.34–1.13 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (11.3%), 2–1 (9.6%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Andorra
| 15 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 5–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valladolid (Home · 6 matches) | Andorra (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 83.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.17 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Valladolid's home record; away stats use Andorra's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.