Sociedad B vs Sp Gijon — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 14 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sociedad B
37%
Draw
29%
Sp Gijon
34%
Expected goals
1.23–1.21
Sociedad B · Sp Gijon
Sociedad B win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (10.5%), 0–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sociedad B score at least twice in 35%; Sp Gijon in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Sp Gijon goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sociedad B goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market reference | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 37% | 29% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Sociedad B
| 14 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Burgos | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Tenerife | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Andorra | 3–1 | W |
Sp Gijon
| 17 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Burgos | 1–0 | W |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Tenerife | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Girona | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Eldense | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sociedad B (Home · 6 matches) | Sp Gijon (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 16.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Sociedad B's home record; away stats use Sp Gijon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.