Sociedad B vs Granada — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 4 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sociedad B
39%
Draw
29%
Granada
32%
Expected goals
1.37–1.22
Sociedad B · Granada
Sociedad B win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (9.1%), 0–0 (8.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Sociedad B score at least twice in 40%; Granada in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Granada goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 13.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sociedad B goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market reference | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociedad B | 2.46 | 2.38 | 2.47 | 2.47 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.39 | 2.47 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.29 | 3.10 | 3.38 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 3.38 1xBet |
| Granada | 2.95 | 2.80 | 2.93 | 2.95 | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.84 | 2.95 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 28 Sep · 04:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Sociedad B
| 14 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Burgos | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Tenerife | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Andorra | 3–1 | W |
Granada
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Mallorca | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eibar | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sociedad B (Home · 3 matches) | Granada (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Sociedad B's home record; away stats use Granada's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.