Sociedad B vs Granada — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 4 October 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sociedad B
38%
top pick
Draw
29%
Granada
33%
result
Final score
2–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Granada win 33.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sociedad B win. Expected goals 1.36–1.24 against 2–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (8.7%), 0–0 (8.6%). It finished 2–3.
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Sociedad B
| 14 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Burgos | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Tenerife | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Andorra | 3–1 | W |
Granada
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Mallorca | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eibar | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sociedad B (Home · 6 matches) | Granada (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 57.1% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 42.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 2.86 |
Home stats use Sociedad B's home record; away stats use Granada's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.