Leganes vs Castellon — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 28 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Leganes
29%
Draw
28%
Castellon
42%
pick · result
Final score
0–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Castellon win 42.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Castellon win. Expected goals 1.13–1.44 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 0–1 (9.6%), 0–0 (8.8%). It finished 0–2.
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Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Castellon
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo II | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leganes (Home · 5 matches) | Castellon (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 42.9% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 42.9% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.14 |
Home stats use Leganes's home record; away stats use Castellon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.