Leganes vs Castellon — La Liga 2 forecast, Monday, 28 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Leganes
28%
Draw
29%
Castellon
43%
Expected goals
1.11–1.43
Leganes · Castellon
Castellon win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (10.0%), 0–0 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Castellon win is 0–1 (10.0%).
Leganes score at least twice in 30%; Castellon in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
Castellon goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 13.8 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Leganes goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market reference | 28% | 29% | 43% |
| Metis Forecast | 28% | 29% | 43% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Leganes | 3.32 |
| Draw | 3.26 |
| Castellon | 2.26 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Castellon
| 14 Aug | A | vs Sociedad B | 1–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Sabadell | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Girona | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leganes (Home · 2 matches) | Castellon (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Leganes's home record; away stats use Castellon's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.