Leganes vs Burgos — La Liga 2 forecast, Friday, 13 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Leganes
45%
Draw
29%
Burgos
26%
Expected goals
1.30–1.02
Leganes · Burgos
Leganes win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.9%), 1–1 (13.6%), 0–0 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Leganes score at least twice in 38%; Burgos in 27%.
Scoreline distribution
Burgos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Leganes goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 30% | 38% |
| Market reference | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 29% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Leganes | 2.14 |
| Draw | 3.29 |
| Burgos | 3.62 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 08 Nov · 05:14 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Leganes
| 16 Aug | A | vs Girona | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Eldense | 1–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Las Palmas | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Tenerife | 0–2 | L |
Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Leganes (Home · 5 matches) | Burgos (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Leganes's home record; away stats use Burgos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.