Las Palmas vs Valladolid — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 4 October 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Las Palmas
43%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Valladolid
28%
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Las Palmas win. Expected goals 1.38–1.00 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (10.8%), 0–0 (10.3%). It finished 2–2.
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Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Las Palmas (Home · 7 matches) | Valladolid (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 42.9% | 71.4% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 57.1% | 42.9% |
| Clean sheet | 42.9% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.29 | 2.43 |
Home stats use Las Palmas's home record; away stats use Valladolid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.