Las Palmas vs Valladolid — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 4 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Las Palmas
43%
Draw
30%
Valladolid
28%
Expected goals
1.37–0.99
Las Palmas · Valladolid
Las Palmas win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 0–0 (10.7%), 1–0 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Las Palmas win is 1–0 (10.7%).
Las Palmas score at least twice in 39%; Valladolid in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Valladolid goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 14.0 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Las Palmas goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 51% | 28% | 21% |
| Market reference | 43% | 30% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 30% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | MarathonBet | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas | 2.14 | 2.05 | 2.13 | 2.15 | 1.95 | 2.06 | 2.15 Betano |
| Draw | 3.23 | 3.00 | 3.34 | 3.20 | 3.30 | 3.24 | 3.34 1xBet |
| Valladolid | 3.65 | 3.50 | 3.66 | 3.65 | 3.40 | 3.55 | 3.66 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 28 Sep · 04:02 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.54–0.90 → 1.37–0.99
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Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Las Palmas (Home · 3 matches) | Valladolid (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Las Palmas's home record; away stats use Valladolid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.