Las Palmas vs Burgos — La Liga 2 result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Las Palmas
48%
top pick
Draw
30%
Burgos
21%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Burgos win 21.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Las Palmas win. Expected goals 1.42–0.87 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (13.2%), 0–0 (11.5%). It finished 1–2.
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Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Burgos
| 16 Aug | H | vs Cordoba | 3–2 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Sp Gijon | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Ceuta | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Las Palmas (Home · 6 matches) | Burgos (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Las Palmas's home record; away stats use Burgos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.