Granada vs Valladolid — La Liga 2 forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Granada
43%
Draw
29%
Valladolid
28%
Expected goals
1.42–1.06
Granada · Valladolid
Granada win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.7%), 1–0 (10.0%), 0–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Granada win is 1–0 (10.0%).
Granada score at least twice in 41%; Valladolid in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Valladolid goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.7 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Granada goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Market reference | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 29% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Granada | 2.26 |
| Draw | 3.32 |
| Valladolid | 3.37 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Granada
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Mallorca | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eibar | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 1–1 | D |
Valladolid
| 15 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 1–1 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Andorra | 1–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Granada (Home · 4 matches) | Valladolid (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Granada's home record; away stats use Valladolid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.