Granada vs Las Palmas — La Liga 2 forecast, Sunday, 15 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Granada
55%
Draw
26%
Las Palmas
19%
Expected goals
1.58–0.91
Granada · Las Palmas
Granada win 55% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.1%), 1–1 (12.1%), 2–1 (11.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Granada score at least twice in 48%; Las Palmas in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Las Palmas goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Granada goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Market reference | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 55% | 26% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Granada | 1.74 |
| Draw | 3.69 |
| Las Palmas | 4.88 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 10 Nov · 04:35 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.60–0.90 → 1.58–0.91
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Granada
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Mallorca | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eibar | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 1–1 | D |
Las Palmas
| 16 Aug | H | vs Albacete | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Girona | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Leganes | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Cadiz | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Granada (Home · 5 matches) | Las Palmas (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 4.00 |
Home stats use Granada's home record; away stats use Las Palmas's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.