Granada vs Andorra — La Liga 2 forecast, Saturday, 26 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Granada
42%
Draw
30%
Andorra
28%
Expected goals
1.35–1.10
Granada · Andorra
Granada win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (11.2%), 0–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Granada win is 1–0 (11.2%).
Granada score at least twice in 39%; Andorra in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Andorra goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Granada goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 29% | 33% |
| Market reference | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 30% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Granada | 2.27 |
| Draw | 3.21 |
| Andorra | 3.35 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Granada
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oviedo | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Mallorca | 2–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cordoba | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Eibar | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Albacete | 1–1 | D |
Andorra
| 15 Aug | H | vs Ceuta | 5–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Celta B | 2–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Eibar | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Valladolid | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Granada (Home · 2 matches) | Andorra (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Granada's home record; away stats use Andorra's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.